Forex trading can change very quickly in either direction. Always have a stop
loss activated on your platform to avoid losing alot of money in a hurry.
There is so much going on with the US dolar right now it is hard to predict
what is going to happen next. The forex trade is human driven and all that
means is you had better listen to the rumors and the news.
With the bailout of the top 3 car makers the US dollar will probably
lose a little ground but not for long. From what i have been seeing
is a drop with a good potential to come back at any time.
Watch the euro/Usd.
Sunday, December 21, 2008
Saturday, November 22, 2008
How to begin Forex Trading
Forex trading is both exciting and lucrative and, since rules were changed to allow small investors to participate in the market by trading on margin accounts, it has attracted a huge number of very happy small investors who today trade at a time suit themselves from the comfort of their own homes. But Forex trading is not quite as simple as many people think and you will need to invest quite a lot of time and a little bit of money in some good training before you embark on any sort of live trading.
One of the first things that you will need, once you have acquired some basic knowledge, is a broker who will handle your transactions for you. The vast majority of brokers are reputable individuals who are associated with a major financial institution, such as a bank, and are registered, in the United States for example, as a Futures Commission Merchant (FCM) with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Having found a broker you can then open a Forex trading account by simply filling in a form and producing proof of your identity and then fund your account and start trading. When you open your account the terms under which you can trade on your account will be clearly specified and one point to note is that you will be subject to a margin agreement which will allow the broker to intervene in any trade which he considers to carry too high a risk. This is reasonable enough since when you are trading on margin you are essentially trading with the broker's money and not your own money.
You will find that most brokers will offer a range of accounts to suit individual investors and one of these accounts is commonly referred to as a mini account which normally allows you trade with as little as $250, as opposed to the $1,000 to $2,500 usually required for a standard trading account. You will also find that leverage varies from one account to the next and from one broker to the next. Leverage simply allows you to trade with more money than you have in your account and the higher the leverage the larger the trading lots you can participate in.
Perhaps the most important thing to look for though as a novice trader is the ability to start by simply trading on paper. This means finding a broker who offers you the ability to practice trading through a simulated account until you have found your feet. Simulated accounts allow you to run trades just as if they were real and to use all of the supporting predictive, charting and trading software, but without actually placing any money at risk. You will find that many brokers will have a demo account which they will let you cut your teeth on for your first month.
Finally, make sure that your broker has all of the software tools that you need including such things as news feeds, real time quotes, charting and profit and loss calculators and that he has a reliable website which is easy to navigate, fast and has excellent backup facilities.
Many people will tell you that, after the right training, a good broker is key to the key to the success of any novice trader and a broker who will provide you with a Forex demo account and help you to get up to speed is worth his weight in gold.
Friday, October 31, 2008
Good Habits of a forex Trader
Profitable forex traders develop good trading habits and live by them on the market.
These trading habits are learned and practiced daily.
Studying the markets constantly to keep up with the trends, and
having the discipline to trade without their emotions getting in the way
of a profitable trade.
They have learned that Panic or Greed will only cost them profits
if they follow them.
Buy studying the market and learning the ins and outs and then knowing
when to get in or out is the result of their labor.
Practice,practice, practice on a demo account and learn these
habits before you jump in.
These trading habits are learned and practiced daily.
Studying the markets constantly to keep up with the trends, and
having the discipline to trade without their emotions getting in the way
of a profitable trade.
They have learned that Panic or Greed will only cost them profits
if they follow them.
Buy studying the market and learning the ins and outs and then knowing
when to get in or out is the result of their labor.
Practice,practice, practice on a demo account and learn these
habits before you jump in.
Saturday, October 18, 2008
Currency Trading Strategy
Developing your own strategy for a successful online currency trading is as important as your investment decisions. Online currency trading without a strategy is to rely entirely on chances for your success or failure. Making the right trading decisions and developing a sound and effective trading strategy is therefore the most important foundation of forex trading.
For developing an online forex trading strategy, you should have a working knowledge of forex, how the market works, different methods of technical analysis, and knowledge of some of the popular technical studies. A successful trading involves strict guidelines for return on investment as well as an optimized risk management. With the rise of the internet, forex trading is almost instantly. Your online currency trading strategy therefore should be full proof to handle instantaneous decisions.
It is advisable to form the online trading strategy based on some technical analysis, such as, Simple Moving Average (SMA). With huge online and conventional resources, with some research you can understand the theory of many such technical analyses. For example, you can formulate a set of discipline like: if the price of the currency crosses above a 12-period SMA, you will treat it as a signal to buy at the market; when the currency price crosses below the 12-period SMA, you will 'stop and reverse'. So you will always have either a long or short position after the first signal.
Many seasoned traders combine more than one strategy for their online forex trading. For example, they use SMA and apply other indicators to support their assumptions. These indicators work as a filter for them. You may formulate your online forex trading strategy based on technical analysis to find out support and resistance levels of the market. The market tends to trade above the support levels and below the resistance levels. If you find that a support or resistance level is broken, the market will then follow through in that direction. Therefore, if your online forex trading strategy helps you in finding out these breaks you can invest in the direction of the market.
The best way to be a successful forex trader is to study and get experience. There are many web sites with free articles, seminars, forums, which can help you in developing your own forex trading strategy. Simple logic and rational thought process will strengthen your strategy and earn huge profit from the trading. Few tips for preparing your strategy will be:
· Always trade with the trend. · Never risk all your trading capital in a single trade. · Follow strict discipline to limit your loss. · Whenever you are in doubt, get out of the trade.
In this highly volatile and liquidated forex trading market, a strong strategy, which is free from any emotions, will ensure high profits for you.
For developing an online forex trading strategy, you should have a working knowledge of forex, how the market works, different methods of technical analysis, and knowledge of some of the popular technical studies. A successful trading involves strict guidelines for return on investment as well as an optimized risk management. With the rise of the internet, forex trading is almost instantly. Your online currency trading strategy therefore should be full proof to handle instantaneous decisions.
It is advisable to form the online trading strategy based on some technical analysis, such as, Simple Moving Average (SMA). With huge online and conventional resources, with some research you can understand the theory of many such technical analyses. For example, you can formulate a set of discipline like: if the price of the currency crosses above a 12-period SMA, you will treat it as a signal to buy at the market; when the currency price crosses below the 12-period SMA, you will 'stop and reverse'. So you will always have either a long or short position after the first signal.
Many seasoned traders combine more than one strategy for their online forex trading. For example, they use SMA and apply other indicators to support their assumptions. These indicators work as a filter for them. You may formulate your online forex trading strategy based on technical analysis to find out support and resistance levels of the market. The market tends to trade above the support levels and below the resistance levels. If you find that a support or resistance level is broken, the market will then follow through in that direction. Therefore, if your online forex trading strategy helps you in finding out these breaks you can invest in the direction of the market.
The best way to be a successful forex trader is to study and get experience. There are many web sites with free articles, seminars, forums, which can help you in developing your own forex trading strategy. Simple logic and rational thought process will strengthen your strategy and earn huge profit from the trading. Few tips for preparing your strategy will be:
· Always trade with the trend. · Never risk all your trading capital in a single trade. · Follow strict discipline to limit your loss. · Whenever you are in doubt, get out of the trade.
In this highly volatile and liquidated forex trading market, a strong strategy, which is free from any emotions, will ensure high profits for you.
To learn more about developing your own Forex strategy please visit Online Currency Trading Strategy
Thursday, October 9, 2008
Practical Forex Trading Rules
You can develop into a better and more profitable trader by applying some of the more important forex currency trading rules consistently with a suitable amount of discipline. The following are a few principles that can help improve your chances of success if they are understood, practiced, and implemented in your trading on a regular basis.
These rules have been learned in the trenches, mostly through testing and observing the common mistakes nearly every trader makes when starting out in the forex currency trading business.
Set Up and Implement Specific Goals/Objectives
Very few things are more important to your trading success than setting specific goals and objectives for what you are trying to achieve. The majority of forex traders who often find themselves on the losing end of a trade make the same common and recurring mistakes. Many of the missteps, by and large, are not directly related to the mechanics of trading.
As a matter of fact, most forex traders don't have a clear direction, never take the time to develop a sound business plan and lack a formal written strategy for putting a well thought out plan in place.
In order for any business to be successful it must have measurable goals that are both realistic and attainable. In forex currency trading, the primary goal is obviously to make money, but it's important to have goals that are not strictly money related as well.
Never lose sight of the fact that risk and reward are part-and-parcel to forex currency trading and high returns come with a price so don't expect them without the willingness to plan for minor draw-downs in trading capital.
Your personal objectives and goals should be very specific to you, but they should also include the following characteristics if they are going to be useful. They must be measurable, assigned to a specific time frame and provide an ample return on the time investment made.
As an example, here is a quick outline of a few specific goals.
1. Develop and test 2 new trading systems every year.
2. Plan to reduce the error rate installing the trading systems by 37% each year.
3. Achieve a 177% maximum return on capital in 12 month period.
4. During the year take 3 weeks off from trading.
Having a definite idea of what you want to accomplish in your trading and the exact time frame you want to achieve it, make your efforts more focused. In return you will have greater success.
In order to establish a track record of winning trades, you need to develop discipline and a personal forex currency trading system that makes sense for you.
About the Author
These rules have been learned in the trenches, mostly through testing and observing the common mistakes nearly every trader makes when starting out in the forex currency trading business.
Set Up and Implement Specific Goals/Objectives
Very few things are more important to your trading success than setting specific goals and objectives for what you are trying to achieve. The majority of forex traders who often find themselves on the losing end of a trade make the same common and recurring mistakes. Many of the missteps, by and large, are not directly related to the mechanics of trading.
As a matter of fact, most forex traders don't have a clear direction, never take the time to develop a sound business plan and lack a formal written strategy for putting a well thought out plan in place.
In order for any business to be successful it must have measurable goals that are both realistic and attainable. In forex currency trading, the primary goal is obviously to make money, but it's important to have goals that are not strictly money related as well.
Never lose sight of the fact that risk and reward are part-and-parcel to forex currency trading and high returns come with a price so don't expect them without the willingness to plan for minor draw-downs in trading capital.
Your personal objectives and goals should be very specific to you, but they should also include the following characteristics if they are going to be useful. They must be measurable, assigned to a specific time frame and provide an ample return on the time investment made.
As an example, here is a quick outline of a few specific goals.
1. Develop and test 2 new trading systems every year.
2. Plan to reduce the error rate installing the trading systems by 37% each year.
3. Achieve a 177% maximum return on capital in 12 month period.
4. During the year take 3 weeks off from trading.
Having a definite idea of what you want to accomplish in your trading and the exact time frame you want to achieve it, make your efforts more focused. In return you will have greater success.
In order to establish a track record of winning trades, you need to develop discipline and a personal forex currency trading system that makes sense for you.
About the Author
LearnForexSystemTradingDirectory.com
© 2006 Roosevelt Jones Publishing
Monday, October 6, 2008
How to Figure Pivot Points
A technical indicator called 'Pivot Points' is becoming increasingly popular. The usefulness of any single technical indicator is always up for debate. But one thing is certain: pivot points are a valuable idea and should be part of every Forex trader's toolkit.
One possible reason pivot points have become so widely used is their sheer simplicity. Many indicators, such as Parabolic SAR or even Exponential Moving Averages, require some knowledge of fairly heavy duty mathematics to calculate. Many traders are reluctant to use an indicator that they only partly understand, and depth of understanding is only possible when you can calculate the indicator personally.
To calculate pivot points is simplicity itself. The formula is:
Pivot Point = (H+L+C)/3
where C is the currency pairs' closing price for a given day, H is the high for the previous 24 hour period and L the low. In short, the pivot point is simply the arithmetic mean (the 'average') of the three prices.
Picking the time for C is somewhat arbitrary since Forex markets trade 24 hours per day. C is often measured at the New York Forex market closing time, 4 p.m. EST. This number, usually denoted P, is used in conjunction with several others - called resistance and support points - in order to form the basis of a trading strategy. The resistance and support points are also simple to calculate. The formulae are as follows:
R1 = (P x 2) - L
S1 = (P x 2) - H
R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
Of course, how to choose a price for the resistance and support levels is key and traders differ, even though there is often a consensus. Some strategies select the pivot point itself as a point of support or resistance, depending on the direction of recent price movements. Others will choose the closing price of the previous day.
If the price moves above the pivot point, trending upward, the market is tending bullish and vice-versa. In the first circumstance the pivot point would be a point of resistance, since prices 'resist' moving above that level. In the latter case, it's a support point.
Beyond attempting to evaluate trends, pivot points can be used as part of an entry and exit strategy. An investor might choose to place an order to purchase a currency pair if the price breaks through a resistance point.
Similarly, any good strategy will involve deciding in advance when to liquidate a position. Pivot points can be used to help select a stop-loss price in the event it moves below a support level.
No single indicator can be used reliably as the sole input to a good trading strategy. Pivot points, however, have been shown to perform well as part of an overall approach involving other indicators such as MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence).
Owing to the enormous volume of transactions, currency prices are not much swayed by the action of any one trader, as is sometimes the case with stocks. That makes pivot points much more useful in Forex trading than in equity trading. Keep in mind, however, that such swings are possible as the result of central bank interest rate hikes, major political events and other fundamental factors.
Many analysts hold that pivot points achieve their useful status as a result of two tendencies.
If the day's price begins above the pivot point, prices will tend to stay above that point until it reaches the first resistance point. Remember, 'begin' is a somewhat arbitrary point in time in Forex trading. Alternatively, if the price begins below the pivot point, it will tend to stay below that point until it hits a support point.
Sometimes called 'trading between the lines', this is one popular approach. Traders wait for the reversal of the trend off a resistance point, then sell. Similarly, when the price trends upward after bouncing off a support point, a buy order can be triggered. If the market trades near R2 or S2, prices will tend to move back toward the pivot point.
Of course, this approach has to be viewed with some skepticism, as most strategies should be. Resistance and support points are broken all the time - that's what makes trading exciting. So, one has to wonder what makes those particular numbers resistance and support points.
To what degree those points influence trading decisions is a matter for debate. But, that they exist and have some influence is unquestionable.
It's always difficult to judge when a price movement is a temporary correction versus the beginning of a trend. By the time the trend is clearly established, it is often too late to profit. As with any form of trading, there's no substitute for experience as an aid to forming a sound, independent judgment.
For more Forex Trading information goto Forextradinginfo.biz You will find, Forex Educational, Trading Systems, Trading Strategies and Forex Broker information to start making a reliable income as a forex trader.
Saturday, September 13, 2008
Forex Trading tools as signals
Prices in Forex markets are the most volatile of any trading instrument. They change farther and faster (on average) than stocks and bonds, though commodities can be pretty roller coaster, too. This presents non-professional investors with a dilemma: either sit by a computer monitor all day, looking for price movements in real time or potentially lose a whole lot of money. But there's a way out of that dilemma. Use signal services.
Forex signals are buy and sell indicators based on technical analysis. Technical analysis uses historical price and volume data to statistically analyze trends. The goal is to establish, with a stated probability, the likelihood of future price movements.
A signal could be as simple as 'Buy euros now at 1.1901'. Those signals are delivered in any number of ways, by email, SMS text message to a cell phone, IM message and so on. Some are no more than flashing text and/or icons on trading software. The software contains in-built algorithms that use the methods of technical analysis, combines it with current market data and generates a signal.
For example, one commonly used technical indicator is something called MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence). Without going into details here, it uses the moving average - the change in an average price over time. A signal can be generated when the value of MACD crosses above (or below) a certain threshold. Buy when it moves above the line, sell when it falls below.
Some signal services allow clients to automate the process of Forex trading even further. You can leave standing orders that when a certain signal is generated, carry out the recommendation. You get an email recommending 'Buy euros now at 1.1901' and the broker automatically enters an order to do just that.
As with any trading tool, it has to be used intelligently in order to avoid disasters. Entirely automating your buys and sells can amount to automatically losing money. Using a signal service can make your life easier, but never abandon your investments entirely to an automated service.
If you plan to do that, you may as well simply turn your investments over to a broker with the instruction: 'Maximize my returns, but keep the risk down to a reasonable level'. Sensible, but not helpful if you want to control your destiny.
Signal services are definitely useful, however. They can relieve investors of the need to continually monitor prices. They can simplify the sometimes bewildering complexity of charts. They can help the investor make better decisions about when to buy or sell and at what price.
All that comes at a price, of course. Signal services range from $50-$250 per month, though some are cheaper and a few are more. Only the individual investor can decide whether the cost is justified. As with any trading service, if you make more than it costs than you would without it, that's profitable.
But, buyer beware. There are dozens of firms that will be happy to take your money. Whether their analysis, and therefore, their signals, are worth anything is a learning experience all its own.
At minimum, investors should use order types that help control risk. Stop-loss orders, limit orders and other common types are an essential means of limiting losses and timing buy and sell orders. That technique, commonly employed in stock trading, is even more critical in the volatile world of Forex.
For more Forex Trading information goto Forextradinginfo.biz You will find, Forex Educational, Trading Systems, Trading Strategies and Forex Broker information to start making a reliable income as a forex trader.
Sunday, August 31, 2008
Choosing a Forex Broker
Choosing a good Forex broker can be as complicated as Forex trading itself. For that reason, investors should do their homework as diligently as they would for a trade. Here are some tips to keep in mind to make your research and choice easier.
In the U.S., any worthwhile Forex broker will be registered as a Futures Commercial Merchant (FCM) with the CFTC (Commodities Futures Trading Commission). Finding one doesn't end the need for research, it's just the bare minimum you should require.
Since Forex trades are highly leveraged (in effect, the broker 'lends' an investor up to 99% of the money required to make a trade), the broker you select should be associated with a firm with deep pockets.
Forex accounts are not FDIC (Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation) insured, so you can not expect the U.S. government, or anyone else, to bail out the brokerage firm or reimburse you if the market turns sharply downward. Large institutions, with ample capital to withstand downturns in the market, and rapid drains on their deposits if clients withdraw en masse, are crucial to your financial peace of mind.
Beyond those rock bottom basics there are many options.
Since the Forex markets trade 24 hours per day all around the world, you may want to trade after normal business hours in your home country. Whether your broker resides in the same country (usually, for language and legal reasons) or not, you want one who will pick up the phone when you call.
Forex trading has moved into the Internet age, but it is still very much a phone-based business. Getting a broker on the phone at any time of the day or night can mean the difference between profit and loss. Sometimes, big profit or loss.
Since Forex brokers don't work off standard commissions the way stock or bond brokers do, you need to research the firm's spreads. Forex trading is always done in currency pairs. A spread is the difference between the bid and ask price - what the broker pays to buy versus the amount they sell a currency for.
Some brokers will offer fixed spreads on all trades, which has the advantage of predictability. It's a kind of fixed 'commission'. But that may or may not suit your trading style or your budget, since they tend to be larger than variable spreads.
Any broker will offer a standard account to a qualified client. Typically you have to fill out an application form that states you have adequate capital and understand the risks involved in Forex trading. Standard accounts trade currency in standard lots of 100,000 units. You can't buy 100 euros for $150, you have to buy 100,000 euros.
Since that's a very large investment for the average trader, brokers offer leverage. Professional traders use leverage as well, of course. In other words you put in, say 1% of the total, the broker puts up the rest. That has huge profit (or loss) potential, but it entails significant risk. So be aware of a broker's margin call policy.
Many brokers today will offer some form of 'mini' account. Instead of trading in standard lots, they trade in smaller units, such as 10,000. This lowers the investment required from, say $2,500 to only $250. Most clients can easily meet that minimum.
But that lower leverage requirement limits the potential for profits. That may or may not suit your investment needs. Only you can decide.
You'll want a broker with software that provides you with the research and other trading tools you will need to be effective in Forex trading. Forex investing is much more complex and volatile than even stock or bond trading, which is already not simple when done well.
Be sure to use the trial accounts offered and make several 'fake' trades in order to test out the software and research available. You need real-time prices - Forex moves very fast - and lots of technical and fundamental analysis information at your fingertips.
There are websites and forums where specific brokers are discussed, but take what's said there with a grain of salt. Just as with complaints about vendors on eBay or Amazon and other large Internet trading arenas, a few bad remarks shouldn't ruin the reputation of honorable brokers.
Beyond all that, the factors become a little more difficult to judge. Above everything, you want to feel you trust the person on the other end of the line. They are not there to be your friend or listen to personal complaints or trade tips. But you should get the sense that they are competent, professional and ethical.
Take your time to research. After all, your decision will affect ALL your trades.
For more Forex Trading information goto Forextradinginfo.biz You will find, Forex Educational, Trading Systems, Trading Strategies and Forex Broker information to start making a reliable income as a forex trader.
Thursday, August 7, 2008
Forex Trading Technical Indicators
Forex Trading Technical Indicators
Many of the common charts encountered in the toolkit of Forex traders are composed of a graphed series of technical indicators. So, in order to understand those charts, the student of Forex investing will do well to study those indicators.
Fortunately, it isn't necessary to know exactly how to calculate them in order to use them. Software will do that for you. But, it's helpful to have some idea of how they are arrived at, and what they mean, in order to evaluate their worth as trading tools.
Keep in mind, however, that none of the indicators - taken alone - tell the whole story. Nor do all of them together make one certain. Indicators are just that, they indicate. They do not predict with certainty. No mathematical tool used in Forex trading will do that. Beware of hyped promises.
Following are some of the more commonly used.
- Moving Average
Just as prices can be charted so can average prices. And, like the prices themselves, the averages change over time. The two most commonly calculated are the SMA (Simple Moving Average) and EMA (Exponential Moving Average).
The SMA is the average of prices taken at specified intervals, say an hour or a day. Each price is weighted equally in calculating the average. The more complicated EMA weights some prices more than others, on the premise that some are more relevant. Recent prices are considered more telling than those further back, hence these are weighted more in the calculation. For example, a 10-day EMA calculation will weight the last days more heavily than the first days.
Many software tools will indicate a buy signal when the current price rises above its moving average, since this suggests a rising market. A sell signal may be triggered when the price falls below the moving average.
- Bollinger Bands
Just as in futures and options trading, Bollinger Bands are a commonly used indicator. While their calculation involves some heavy-duty mathematics, their interpretation is considerably easier.
The bands are calculated as standard deviations above and below a simple moving average. The width of the bands will vary depending on volatility. As volatility rises, they become wider. As volatility decreases they narrow. Prices tend to stay within the upper and lower bands, with sharp price changes tending to occur after the bands tighten. If prices move outside the bands, the current trend will tend to continue.
A sell signal is suggested when the current price is above the moving average, close to the upper band. A buy signal is indicated when it moves to the lower band.
- RSI
The RSI, or Relative Strength Index, is a value between 0 and 100. A number above 70 usually suggests that a currency is overbought and therefore due for a price reversal. A value below 30 indicates a currency is oversold.
As a price is making a new high, but the RSI fails to surpass its previous high, the trend is said to 'diverge'. This often indicates an impending reversal of the trend. When the RSI dips below a recent bottom, it is said to have executed a 'failure swing'. That move is seen as tending to confirm the impending price reversal.
There are several other common indicators, including MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence), Momentum, OBV (On Balance Volume), Money Flow Index, Parabolic SAR, Stochastic Oscillators and dozens even more esoteric.
All these were developed as statistical tools to help predict prices and trends. But keep in mind that, though some technical analysts claim to eschew looking for causes, all of them are based on assumptions when used as technical indicators.
As with any tool, they should form part of a strategy for trading. They should not be used as a substitute for studying the market and using proper risk management.
For more Forex Trading information goto Forextradinginfo.biz You will find, Forex Educational, Trading Systems, Trading Strategies and Forex Broker information to start making a reliable income as a forex trader.
Many of the common charts encountered in the toolkit of Forex traders are composed of a graphed series of technical indicators. So, in order to understand those charts, the student of Forex investing will do well to study those indicators.
Fortunately, it isn't necessary to know exactly how to calculate them in order to use them. Software will do that for you. But, it's helpful to have some idea of how they are arrived at, and what they mean, in order to evaluate their worth as trading tools.
Keep in mind, however, that none of the indicators - taken alone - tell the whole story. Nor do all of them together make one certain. Indicators are just that, they indicate. They do not predict with certainty. No mathematical tool used in Forex trading will do that. Beware of hyped promises.
Following are some of the more commonly used.
- Moving Average
Just as prices can be charted so can average prices. And, like the prices themselves, the averages change over time. The two most commonly calculated are the SMA (Simple Moving Average) and EMA (Exponential Moving Average).
The SMA is the average of prices taken at specified intervals, say an hour or a day. Each price is weighted equally in calculating the average. The more complicated EMA weights some prices more than others, on the premise that some are more relevant. Recent prices are considered more telling than those further back, hence these are weighted more in the calculation. For example, a 10-day EMA calculation will weight the last days more heavily than the first days.
Many software tools will indicate a buy signal when the current price rises above its moving average, since this suggests a rising market. A sell signal may be triggered when the price falls below the moving average.
- Bollinger Bands
Just as in futures and options trading, Bollinger Bands are a commonly used indicator. While their calculation involves some heavy-duty mathematics, their interpretation is considerably easier.
The bands are calculated as standard deviations above and below a simple moving average. The width of the bands will vary depending on volatility. As volatility rises, they become wider. As volatility decreases they narrow. Prices tend to stay within the upper and lower bands, with sharp price changes tending to occur after the bands tighten. If prices move outside the bands, the current trend will tend to continue.
A sell signal is suggested when the current price is above the moving average, close to the upper band. A buy signal is indicated when it moves to the lower band.
- RSI
The RSI, or Relative Strength Index, is a value between 0 and 100. A number above 70 usually suggests that a currency is overbought and therefore due for a price reversal. A value below 30 indicates a currency is oversold.
As a price is making a new high, but the RSI fails to surpass its previous high, the trend is said to 'diverge'. This often indicates an impending reversal of the trend. When the RSI dips below a recent bottom, it is said to have executed a 'failure swing'. That move is seen as tending to confirm the impending price reversal.
There are several other common indicators, including MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence), Momentum, OBV (On Balance Volume), Money Flow Index, Parabolic SAR, Stochastic Oscillators and dozens even more esoteric.
All these were developed as statistical tools to help predict prices and trends. But keep in mind that, though some technical analysts claim to eschew looking for causes, all of them are based on assumptions when used as technical indicators.
As with any tool, they should form part of a strategy for trading. They should not be used as a substitute for studying the market and using proper risk management.
For more Forex Trading information goto Forextradinginfo.biz You will find, Forex Educational, Trading Systems, Trading Strategies and Forex Broker information to start making a reliable income as a forex trader.
Tuesday, August 5, 2008
Mind Set for a Forex Trader
Trading Psychology or a Sucessful Forex Trader
Professional athletes are often told by their coaches that their attitudes on the field can affect whether they win or lose. That's even more true in Forex trading. It sounds like the standard motivational speech, but having the right frame of mind can definitely influence your trading results.
There are many aspects of Forex trading that are outside the investor's control.
Forex market participants number in the millions - traders for the world's largest banks, huge governments and individuals just like you. Unlike stocks, even the big traders have a tiny effect on exchange rates.
Even when setting interest rates and other actions that influence inflation, the largest governments can have no immediate impact on exchanges. The Forex markets are simply too large - $2 trillion daily - for any one player to dominate the action.
Trading strategies, which are essential, can increase the odds of making profits and help minimize or avoid losses. They give the knowledgeable trader that tiny edge that can make the difference between winning and losing on a given trade, or over time.
But before looking at market influences, and even before developing a set of technical strategies that help guide trading choices, the novice Forex investor has to honestly and objectively examine his or her own attitudes.
Forex is fast-paced, complicated and requires a well-thought out game plan. That game plan has to be executed with nerve and skill. Trading successfully in a demo account for several weeks is essential but can lead to unwarranted confidence. Traders who invest Monopoly money will often take chances, leading to successful trades, that they wouldn't dream of taking with real money.
Real trading requires answering honestly a number of questions that can be difficult to answer objectively when the subject is the self-same trader asking them. What are your financial trading goals? Looking for a quick buck? Seek elsewhere. You will have losses that wipe them out. Looking for secure, low-risk capital accumulation? Try AAA bonds instead.
Forex trading can be simultaneously a stimulating intellectual game and an exciting adventure. The thrill of victory! The despair of (temporary) defeat! The mastery of the intricacies of Fibonacci, Parabolic SAR, Stochastic Oscillators and Doji Stars. All this, and much more, is part of Forex investing.
As a result, you will need to be very frank with yourself and decide how (and whether) you are prepared to deal with pressure and fear. Even professional traders do not have any certain system of ensuring profits and avoiding losses.
The pressure of deciding when to buy and when to sell is many times larger than in stock trading. The fear of loss is greater, in part because of the amplification provided by 100:1 or larger leverage.
Even winning can be problematic. With practice and persistence, provided you don't quit too soon or run out of money too quickly, you will have periods when it all seems laughingly easy. That can lead to euphoria, which is great. But it can also lead to cockiness, which is fatal. Nothing will wipe out a trader quicker than arrogance. Confidence is essential, vanity is suicidal.
The other side of the coin to be avoided is too much second guessing. Successful trading requires bold moves based on sound judgment and confidence. Every decision is a small leap of faith, since no one can know in advance for certain what the outcome will be. Probability of one degree or another is the best that can be achieved.
All this will be accompanied by the fear of loss of capital, which often leads to panic selling in the face of what would have been a temporary price movement. It is of such panics that depressions are made, both economic and psychological.
Forex is a roller coaster ride. But if you have a good inner ear and a strong stomach, bolstered by the brain of a statistician and the nerves of a pro billiards player, you will be well suited to end the ride with full pockets.
For more Forex Trading information go to Forextradinginfo.biz You will find, Forex Educational, Trading Systems, Trading Strategies and Forex Broker information to start making a reliable income as a forex trader.
Professional athletes are often told by their coaches that their attitudes on the field can affect whether they win or lose. That's even more true in Forex trading. It sounds like the standard motivational speech, but having the right frame of mind can definitely influence your trading results.
There are many aspects of Forex trading that are outside the investor's control.
Forex market participants number in the millions - traders for the world's largest banks, huge governments and individuals just like you. Unlike stocks, even the big traders have a tiny effect on exchange rates.
Even when setting interest rates and other actions that influence inflation, the largest governments can have no immediate impact on exchanges. The Forex markets are simply too large - $2 trillion daily - for any one player to dominate the action.
Trading strategies, which are essential, can increase the odds of making profits and help minimize or avoid losses. They give the knowledgeable trader that tiny edge that can make the difference between winning and losing on a given trade, or over time.
But before looking at market influences, and even before developing a set of technical strategies that help guide trading choices, the novice Forex investor has to honestly and objectively examine his or her own attitudes.
Forex is fast-paced, complicated and requires a well-thought out game plan. That game plan has to be executed with nerve and skill. Trading successfully in a demo account for several weeks is essential but can lead to unwarranted confidence. Traders who invest Monopoly money will often take chances, leading to successful trades, that they wouldn't dream of taking with real money.
Real trading requires answering honestly a number of questions that can be difficult to answer objectively when the subject is the self-same trader asking them. What are your financial trading goals? Looking for a quick buck? Seek elsewhere. You will have losses that wipe them out. Looking for secure, low-risk capital accumulation? Try AAA bonds instead.
Forex trading can be simultaneously a stimulating intellectual game and an exciting adventure. The thrill of victory! The despair of (temporary) defeat! The mastery of the intricacies of Fibonacci, Parabolic SAR, Stochastic Oscillators and Doji Stars. All this, and much more, is part of Forex investing.
As a result, you will need to be very frank with yourself and decide how (and whether) you are prepared to deal with pressure and fear. Even professional traders do not have any certain system of ensuring profits and avoiding losses.
The pressure of deciding when to buy and when to sell is many times larger than in stock trading. The fear of loss is greater, in part because of the amplification provided by 100:1 or larger leverage.
Even winning can be problematic. With practice and persistence, provided you don't quit too soon or run out of money too quickly, you will have periods when it all seems laughingly easy. That can lead to euphoria, which is great. But it can also lead to cockiness, which is fatal. Nothing will wipe out a trader quicker than arrogance. Confidence is essential, vanity is suicidal.
The other side of the coin to be avoided is too much second guessing. Successful trading requires bold moves based on sound judgment and confidence. Every decision is a small leap of faith, since no one can know in advance for certain what the outcome will be. Probability of one degree or another is the best that can be achieved.
All this will be accompanied by the fear of loss of capital, which often leads to panic selling in the face of what would have been a temporary price movement. It is of such panics that depressions are made, both economic and psychological.
Forex is a roller coaster ride. But if you have a good inner ear and a strong stomach, bolstered by the brain of a statistician and the nerves of a pro billiards player, you will be well suited to end the ride with full pockets.
For more Forex Trading information go to Forextradinginfo.biz You will find, Forex Educational, Trading Systems, Trading Strategies and Forex Broker information to start making a reliable income as a forex trader.
Monday, August 4, 2008
Understanding Forex Trading Spreads and Investment Costs
Forex Trading - Spreads and Investment Costs
Novices considering currency trading will read that Forex brokers charge no commissions and cheer. But don't be fooled. Whether anything in life is truly free may be up for debate, but one thing is certain: nothing in investing is.
Forex market makers and brokers make money from something called 'the spread'. It's important you understand how it works.
Suppose a trader is dealing directly with a market maker. A market maker is an individual or company that directly offers a currency pair trade, as distinguished from a broker who acts as an intermediary. The bid price is that which the market maker offers to BUY the base currency from the trader. The ask price is that which the market maker requires in order to SELL the base currency in exchange for the quote currency.
For example
EUR/USD 1.1900/05 means
If you buy 1 EUR you will pay 1.1905 USD
If you sell 1 EUR you will receive 1.1900 USD
The difference between those two prices is called the SPREAD and it is how market makers (and, indirectly, Forex brokers) make a profit, in stead of charging commissions. In practice, for every seller there must be a buyer for any trade to take place. The broker, acting as an intermediary - unless he or she is also a market maker buying and selling for his or her own account - locates a trading partner.
If you are willing to sell euros at the exchange rate of $1.1900 the broker locates someone willing to buy them at $1.1905. The broker pockets the difference, in stead of receiving an explicit commission.
How does this affect you, the Forex trader? You are paying for the spread, in essence.
Suppose you were to accept the trade and sell euros for dollars. The bid price will apply so you receive 1.1900 dollars for every euro sold. Now suppose you wanted to immediately buy those euros back from your broker. The ask price will apply so you would pay a rate of 1.1905 dollars for every euro acquired. That difference, the spread, is measured in points or pips, in this case 5 pips.
That five point difference would result in an immediate loss to you, even though the exchange rate hasn't changed by a single pip. You sold euros for 5 pips less ($1.1900) than you bought them for ($1.1905).
Calculated in terms of dollars rather than points, you would lose $5,000 on an immediate trade of 100 lots. $11,905,000 - $11,900,000 = $5,000. At 1/250th leverage, however, this equates to an actual 'commission' cost of $5,000/250 = $20.
It's perfectly legal and ethical. It's simply the cost (to you) of trading in foreign currency.
As a result of the spread, which accompanies every quote, traders must wait for the market to move by at least that amount just to break even. To profit, the exchange rate must move by more than the spread. Of course, while you wait, the exchange rate can move in either direction and may result in an even greater loss if you liquidate your position.
In our example, you sold euros at 1.1900 and will have to see at least a 6 pip change in ask price (from 1.1905 to 1.1899) before you can buy euros at a profit. Every currency pair price - the exchange rate - moves, by definition and convention, a minimum of 1 pip. You will never see a 1.5 pip change, for example. This minimum is a one point change in the last digit in the price quote.
Of course, actual trading is not so simple. That needn't be bad, though. That can work for you. Brokers or market makers offer different amounts and types of spread to different customers at different times.
Spreads may, and often are, narrower for those who have a 100K account and larger for those with a mini account. You put more money into the game and you get a better deal. That's reasonable and normal.
Spreads for a mini account may be as high as 10 to 15 pips, and as low as 5 pips or less for a 100K account. Large banks and institutional traders are typically the only ones to receive ultra-low spreads.
Also, many brokers differ in the terms under which they'll offer variable versus fixed spreads. For example, a broker might offer a variable, and decreasing, spread as the notional amount of the trade increases.
As an example, you offer to buy 10 standard lots of euros (10 x 100,000 euros x 1.1905 $/euro = $1,190,500) and the spread is, say, 3 pips. If the deal were only for 1 standard lot (100,000 units) the spread might be 5 pips.
Note that because Forex trading is highly leveraged a trader may only have to input 1/250th of the actual amount of dollars. Even that low fraction still amounts to an investment of $4,762 ($1,190,500/250) for 10 standard lots. Though high, that amount is within the reach of many non-professional traders.
Spreads can differ due to a dozen different circumstances. Just as with bonds, mortgage lending and every other form of investing today, the variations are many. Spreads will differ from broker to broker and from trade to trade. They can depend (as we've seen) on the amount traded, the established relationship between broker and client, or recent volatility, or current liquidity... The list is endless.
As a result of this, it pays the trader to do some homework and shop around for brokers that offer their clients the best spreads, on average. But beware - cheaper is not always better. Fixed spreads are typically slightly higher than variable, but offer the insurance of locking in a known cost.
It does little good to get great (super-small) spreads if your broker's execution times are typically bad or if trades are frequently rejected. You want trades made quickly so they can be made as close as possible to the up-to-the-minute price you saw on your screen. You also want a broker who will be honest and ethical and not employ any of the many tricks of the trade for increasing their profits at your expense.
If you make the effort, you will find a broker or market maker who offers honest deals at reasonable spreads. Despite the huge volume of Forex trading (in the neighborhood of a few trillions daily worldwide among thousands of banks), it is still in some ways a small world. Word gets around and a bad reputation can ruin a broker.
Make sure you read the fine print and execute enough demo and small dollar volume trades to get used to Forex trading and how spreads affect your profits and losses. Forex trading is much more complex, volatile and fast-paced than even typical day trading in stocks. An educated investor will suffer fewer avoidable losses.
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Novices considering currency trading will read that Forex brokers charge no commissions and cheer. But don't be fooled. Whether anything in life is truly free may be up for debate, but one thing is certain: nothing in investing is.
Forex market makers and brokers make money from something called 'the spread'. It's important you understand how it works.
Suppose a trader is dealing directly with a market maker. A market maker is an individual or company that directly offers a currency pair trade, as distinguished from a broker who acts as an intermediary. The bid price is that which the market maker offers to BUY the base currency from the trader. The ask price is that which the market maker requires in order to SELL the base currency in exchange for the quote currency.
For example
EUR/USD 1.1900/05 means
If you buy 1 EUR you will pay 1.1905 USD
If you sell 1 EUR you will receive 1.1900 USD
The difference between those two prices is called the SPREAD and it is how market makers (and, indirectly, Forex brokers) make a profit, in stead of charging commissions. In practice, for every seller there must be a buyer for any trade to take place. The broker, acting as an intermediary - unless he or she is also a market maker buying and selling for his or her own account - locates a trading partner.
If you are willing to sell euros at the exchange rate of $1.1900 the broker locates someone willing to buy them at $1.1905. The broker pockets the difference, in stead of receiving an explicit commission.
How does this affect you, the Forex trader? You are paying for the spread, in essence.
Suppose you were to accept the trade and sell euros for dollars. The bid price will apply so you receive 1.1900 dollars for every euro sold. Now suppose you wanted to immediately buy those euros back from your broker. The ask price will apply so you would pay a rate of 1.1905 dollars for every euro acquired. That difference, the spread, is measured in points or pips, in this case 5 pips.
That five point difference would result in an immediate loss to you, even though the exchange rate hasn't changed by a single pip. You sold euros for 5 pips less ($1.1900) than you bought them for ($1.1905).
Calculated in terms of dollars rather than points, you would lose $5,000 on an immediate trade of 100 lots. $11,905,000 - $11,900,000 = $5,000. At 1/250th leverage, however, this equates to an actual 'commission' cost of $5,000/250 = $20.
It's perfectly legal and ethical. It's simply the cost (to you) of trading in foreign currency.
As a result of the spread, which accompanies every quote, traders must wait for the market to move by at least that amount just to break even. To profit, the exchange rate must move by more than the spread. Of course, while you wait, the exchange rate can move in either direction and may result in an even greater loss if you liquidate your position.
In our example, you sold euros at 1.1900 and will have to see at least a 6 pip change in ask price (from 1.1905 to 1.1899) before you can buy euros at a profit. Every currency pair price - the exchange rate - moves, by definition and convention, a minimum of 1 pip. You will never see a 1.5 pip change, for example. This minimum is a one point change in the last digit in the price quote.
Of course, actual trading is not so simple. That needn't be bad, though. That can work for you. Brokers or market makers offer different amounts and types of spread to different customers at different times.
Spreads may, and often are, narrower for those who have a 100K account and larger for those with a mini account. You put more money into the game and you get a better deal. That's reasonable and normal.
Spreads for a mini account may be as high as 10 to 15 pips, and as low as 5 pips or less for a 100K account. Large banks and institutional traders are typically the only ones to receive ultra-low spreads.
Also, many brokers differ in the terms under which they'll offer variable versus fixed spreads. For example, a broker might offer a variable, and decreasing, spread as the notional amount of the trade increases.
As an example, you offer to buy 10 standard lots of euros (10 x 100,000 euros x 1.1905 $/euro = $1,190,500) and the spread is, say, 3 pips. If the deal were only for 1 standard lot (100,000 units) the spread might be 5 pips.
Note that because Forex trading is highly leveraged a trader may only have to input 1/250th of the actual amount of dollars. Even that low fraction still amounts to an investment of $4,762 ($1,190,500/250) for 10 standard lots. Though high, that amount is within the reach of many non-professional traders.
Spreads can differ due to a dozen different circumstances. Just as with bonds, mortgage lending and every other form of investing today, the variations are many. Spreads will differ from broker to broker and from trade to trade. They can depend (as we've seen) on the amount traded, the established relationship between broker and client, or recent volatility, or current liquidity... The list is endless.
As a result of this, it pays the trader to do some homework and shop around for brokers that offer their clients the best spreads, on average. But beware - cheaper is not always better. Fixed spreads are typically slightly higher than variable, but offer the insurance of locking in a known cost.
It does little good to get great (super-small) spreads if your broker's execution times are typically bad or if trades are frequently rejected. You want trades made quickly so they can be made as close as possible to the up-to-the-minute price you saw on your screen. You also want a broker who will be honest and ethical and not employ any of the many tricks of the trade for increasing their profits at your expense.
If you make the effort, you will find a broker or market maker who offers honest deals at reasonable spreads. Despite the huge volume of Forex trading (in the neighborhood of a few trillions daily worldwide among thousands of banks), it is still in some ways a small world. Word gets around and a bad reputation can ruin a broker.
Make sure you read the fine print and execute enough demo and small dollar volume trades to get used to Forex trading and how spreads affect your profits and losses. Forex trading is much more complex, volatile and fast-paced than even typical day trading in stocks. An educated investor will suffer fewer avoidable losses.
For more Forex Trading information goto Forextradinginfo.biz You will find, Forex Educational, Trading Systems, Trading Strategies and Forex Broker information to start making a reliable income as a forex trader.
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